NFL Week 9 Start/Sit: The Workload Changes That Matter

CAR looks great for DEN's backfield. The awkward bit is that Coleman is getting the work Dobbins used to get. That's the sort of decision this week comes down to: who has the touches, where the defense gives up Yds, and whether the two actually line up.

By Kaz · Updated November 5, 2026 · Data through Week 8

Quarterbacks  ·  Running backs  ·  Wide receivers  ·  Tight ends  ·  Kickers  ·  Team defenses  ·  Fantasy points allowed  ·  Final board

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff

QB ·DET at MIA

Start · QB1

MIA gives Goff room underneath and a shot at bigger gains to the right.

Key stats

Key stats

Att/G	EPA/DB	MIA EPA/DB	MIA PPR/G · rk
35.4	+0.261	+0.299	18.2 / #26

I'd start Goff here. His matchup profile has +0.261 EPA per dropback on 35.4 attempts per game, and MIA is allowing a league worst +0.299 with a 53.7% passing success rate. The fantasy allowance looks less alarming because MIA has faced just 205 QB attempts in seven games. Opponents have been efficient without needing huge passing volume.

Intermediate right is the clearest overlap. Goff has 197 Yds on 17 throws there; MIA has allowed 235 on 14, or 16.79 per attempt. The short outside areas have also given up 68 completions on 81 attempts. With DET favored by 7.5 in a 49.5 total, Goff has several ways to keep drives moving after last week's much tougher MIN matchup.

Lineup call: Start over Maye or Caleb in a close single QB decision.

Dak Prescott

QB ·DAL at IND

Start · QB1

IND should give Dak more time, especially on throws to the right.

Key stats

Key stats

Att/G	Catchable %	IND pressure %	IND PPR/G · rk
37.8	70.6%	30.8%	16.9 / #24

Dak averages 37.8 attempts with a 70.6% catchable rate. IND pressures 30.8% of dropbacks, well below ATL's 41.7% and SEA's 43.2%, and allows +0.098 pass EPA per dropback, ranked 22nd from toughest to softest. That combination works for an established QB1: plenty of attempts against a defense that usually gives the quarterback time.

IND has held intermediate left to 5.31 Yds per attempt, but intermediate right allows 14.35 on 17 attempts and the middle allows 9.23 on 13. Those smaller areas support the broader passing matchup. DAL is favored by 5.5 in a 51.5 total. Pickens is questionable with a hamstring issue and Ferguson missed Wednesday practice, so the receiving group still needs a final check. Dak stays in my lineup.

Lineup call: Start over Maye, Caleb or a speculative streamer.

Baker Mayfield

QB ·TB at CHI

Sit · QB2 / superflex

CHI makes Baker's best underneath outlet a tougher throw.

Key stats

Key stats

EPA/DB	Catchable %	CHI pressure %	CHI PPR/G · rk
-0.230	62.9%	39.8%	15.4 / #18

I'd sit Baker in single QB. Across five appearances, his matchup profile has minus 0.230 EPA per dropback, a 62.9% catchable rate and an 18.8% deep completion rate. CHI pressures 39.8% of dropbacks and turns 8.33% into sacks. That asks a struggling passing game to handle more disruption. Egbuka is also questionable with a foot issue after working on the side Wednesday.

Short left is the useful matchup detail. Baker has completed 17 of 19 throws there at 7.37 Yds per attempt. CHI has held that area to a 54.5% completion rate and 4.84 Yds per attempt on 44 throws. His short right has already returned just 4.0 Yds per attempt on 20 throws. The underneath production gives him less to fall back on here, and the deep passing hasn't been good enough to carry a single QB start.

Lineup call: Start Goff or Prescott ahead of Mayfield. Keep Baker as a QB2 in superflex.

Drake Maye

QB ·NE vs GB

Sit in close calls · QB2 / borderline QB1

The rushing helps. GB makes the passing side a harder sell.

Key stats

Key stats

Rush Yds/G	EPA/DB	GB EPA/DB	GB PPR/G · rk
26.9	+0.190	-0.053	11.5 / #5

Maye's +0.190 profile EPA per dropback is good, and the assembled research has him at 215 rushing Yds in eight games. That keeps him useful even when the passing matchup turns awkward. GB has allowed the fifth fewest QB fantasy points in this scoring sample, with minus 0.053 EPA per dropback and a 6.81% sack rate. Coming off MIA, this is a clear step up in difficulty.

GB allows 5.85 Yds per attempt short middle on 48 attempts and 6.96 intermediate left on 25. Maye's average throw depth is 8.9 Yds in the research feed. The weather doesn't add much to the downgrade: the latest forecast has sustained wind of 5 to 7 mph, with gusts up to 22. I'd use Goff or Dak ahead of him, but Maye's rushing is enough to keep him above emergency streamers.

Lineup call: Prefer Goff or Prescott. Keep Maye over emergency streamers.

Good quarterback, different assignment

Right is a softer pass defense. Higher is better observed QB efficiency.

GoffPrescottMayeWilliamsMayfield

Good quarterback, different assignment

Opponent pass EPA allowed	Goff	Prescott	Maye	Williams	Mayfield
0.299	0.261
0.0981		0.159
-0.0531			0.19
-0.1567				0.265
-0.0093					-0.23

Caleb Williams

QB ·CHI vs TB

Sit in close calls · QB2 / borderline QB1

TB has been taking the easy value out of short completions.

Key stats

Key stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	TB EPA/DB	TB PPR/G · rk
+0.265	4.3 pp	-0.157	11.2 / #3

Caleb has played well across five appearances: +0.265 profile EPA per dropback and CPOE of +4.3 percentage points. TB is the reason I'd move him down this week. It allows minus 0.157 EPA per dropback, second best, has 12 interceptions in eight games and gives up only 11.2 QB fantasy points per game in this scoring sample. Caleb's 129 rushing Yds in those five appearances still give him a useful fallback.

TB allows 5.55 Yds per attempt short right on 55 throws, with minus 0.396 EPA per attempt. Short middle is at 5.14 Yds and minus 0.194 EPA on 28. Those are tough returns on the routine completions a QB needs. Yaya Diaby is out with an MCL injury, which takes something out of that front. Chicago's forecast is 8 to 10 mph sustained wind with gusts around 24 to 25. I'd switch to Goff or Dak; I wouldn't chase a low volume streamer just to avoid TB.

Lineup call: Prefer Goff or Prescott. Keep Caleb in superflex and ahead of low volume streamers.

Running backs

DEN is changing hands

Actual carries and targets in the last two games.

Coleman carriesDobbins carriesColeman targetsDobbins targets

DEN is changing hands

Week	Coleman carries	Dobbins carries	Coleman targets	Dobbins targets
W7	9	6	2	0
W8	11	7	5	0

Four ways a run defense can push back

Statyx component grades: higher means stronger defense. No combined score.

Chart data

Component	NO	CAR	TB	LA
Efficiency	2	2	92	93
Success	10	18	93	91
Explosives	26	27	69	82
Disruption	6	7	93	72

Javonte Williams

RB ·DAL at IND

Start · RB1 / RB2

Heavy carries, goal line control and a soft left side for IND.

Key stats

Key stats

Carries W7/8	BF inside 5 %	IND left Yds / N	IND PPR/G · rk
25 / 24	95.2%	434 / 72	24.8 / #23

Javonte followed 25 carries against PHI with 24 against ARI. He has 36 RZ carries and 95.2% of DAL's backfield rushing work inside the five. Only two targets across those last two games is a drawback in PPR, but the rushing role remains strong. DAL being favored by 5.5 in a 51.5 total suits it.

IND has allowed 434 Yds on 72 runs through left end, tackle and guard, or 6.03 per carry. Javonte has 182 Yds on 27 left tackle attempts himself. IND ranks 26th in Statyx's run defense grade and 27th for backfield disruption. His busiest part of the field meets one of IND's weakest. I'd take that ahead of Swift having to grind through TB.

Lineup call: Start over Swift, Dobbins or White.

Quinshon Judkins

RB ·CLE at NO

Start · RB2

The rushing has been ugly. NO gives him a decent chance to fix that.

Key stats

Key stats

RYOE/att	BF inside 5 %	NO guard Yds / N	NO PPR/G · rk
-0.32 Yds	85.7%	202 / 38	30.8 / #32

Judkins is at 3.4 YPC, minus 0.221 EPA per carry and minus 0.32 RYOE per attempt. Nobody needs to pretend that's good. The reason to start him is his 101 carries in seven games and 85.7% share of CLE's backfield rushing work inside the five. NO has conceded 11 rushing TDs to RBs in seven games.

There's a specific lane fit too. Judkins has 34 carries through the two guard lanes; NO has given up 202 Yds and six TDs on 38 runs there. It ranks last in run defense grade and 32nd for backfield disruption. CLE is a three point underdog indoors, so the matchup doesn't come with an especially hostile game script. I like Judkins as an RB2 ahead of the smaller DEN and WAS roles.

Lineup call: Start over Dobbins or White. A reasonable RB2 in close calls.

Jonah Coleman

RB ·DEN at CAR

Start as a flex · PPR flex

Coleman is getting the carries and the catches in DEN.

Key stats

Key stats

Carries W7/8	Tgt W7/8	CAR middle Yds / N	CAR PPR/G · rk
9 / 11	2 / 5	257 / 53	28.2 / #31

Coleman has nine and 11 carries in his last two games, plus two and five targets. Dobbins had six and seven carries with no targets in either. Coleman is now first on the depth chart, and his 104 scrimmage Yds against KC came on 11 runs and four catches. That's enough recent work to put him ahead of Dobbins in PPR.

CAR ranks 31st in Statyx's run defense grade and 30th for backfield disruption. Coleman has sent 12 of his 30 season carries up the middle for 61 Yds. CAR has allowed 257 Yds and five TDs on 53 middle runs, with DEN favored by three. The season sample is still only 30 carries and ten targets, so I'm using him as a flex over Dobbins or White rather than treating the job as settled.

Lineup call: PPR flex over Dobbins or White.

J.K. Dobbins

RB ·DEN at CAR

Sit · Bench / TD flex

The CAR matchup is good. Six or seven carries won't get much out of it.

Key stats

Key stats

Carries W7/8	Tgt W7/8	RYOE/att	CAR PPR/G · rk
6 / 7	0 / 0	-1.08 Yds	28.2 / #31

Dobbins has six and seven carries in his last two games, no targets in either and just 36 combined rushing Yds. Coleman led him in carries both weeks and is now first on the depth chart. The season average of 11.8 carries per game is lagging behind what's happening in this backfield.

Dobbins is also at minus 1.08 RYOE per attempt, 2.43 Yds after contact per carry and 2.84 YPC with breakaways removed. CAR's run defense grade ranks 31st, and DEN is favored, so a TD remains possible. But with this little receiving work, he needs that score badly. Coleman or Judkins gets the lineup spot for me.

Lineup call: Bench for Coleman or Judkins. An emergency flex who needs a TD.

Rachaad White

RB ·WAS vs LA

Sit · Bench / deep PPR flex

WAS lists him first, but the touches still look like committee work.

Key stats

Key stats

BF carry %	BF RZ carry %	LA middle YPC/N	LA PPR/G · rk
29.0%	23.1%	2.94 / 86	20.2 / #9

White's last three appearances brought seven, seven and 11 carries, plus nine total targets. His backfield carry share is 29.0%, dropping to 23.1% in the RZ. He has managed 3.47 Yds after contact per carry, but there's only so much that can do for fantasy on this workload.

LA ranks first in Statyx's run defense grade and rush efficiency prevention. White has directed 15 of 47 carries up the middle, where LA has allowed just 253 Yds on 86 runs, or 2.94 per carry. WAS is getting 5.5, and his three targets per game offer only modest help if the rushing dries up. I'd rather have Judkins or Coleman.

Lineup call: Bench for Judkins or Coleman. Retain only as a deep PPR flex.

D'Andre Swift

RB ·CHI vs TB

Start, lower ceiling · RB2

Keep Swift in. Just don't budget for another three TDs.

Key stats

Key stats

Carries W6/7/8	Targets/G	TB run rank	TB PPR/G · rk
16 / 22 / 27	3.5	2 / 32	17.2 / #1

Swift's last three games brought 16, 22 and 27 carries, with 12 targets across the same stretch. Last week's three TDs came on only 69 rushing Yds from 27 attempts. The touches deserve trust; that scoring rate is another matter. CHI is favored by six, and Monangai remains questionable after missing Wednesday walkthrough with thumb and toe issues. If he sits, Swift's workload gets further support.

TB ranks second in Statyx's run defense grade and first for success rate prevention. Swift has 275 Yds on 52 runs through the two tackle lanes, where TB has conceded only 136 on 40. Right end is softer at 101 Yds allowed on 16 attempts, but it's a smaller part of Swift's workload. TB losing Yaya Diaby to an MCL injury helps the offense. I'd still start Javonte first, then keep Swift ahead of Dobbins and White.

Lineup call: Start as an RB2, behind Javonte. Keep ahead of Dobbins and White.

Ashton Jeanty

RB ·LV at SF

PPR flex · PPR flex

The rushing role is shrinking. Six targets a game still matter in PPR.

Key stats

Key stats

Carries W5 to 8	Targets/G	Rush EPA/att	SF PPR/G · rk
10 / 10 / 8 / 2	6.0	-0.308	23.1 / #21

Jeanty's carry counts went from 23, 21 and 19 to ten, ten, eight and two in his last four games. His season rushing is at 3.1 YPC and minus 0.308 EPA per carry. That is a shaky rushing floor for an RB2, especially with LV getting ten against SF. The receiving role is much healthier: six targets per game, a 17.2% target share and 7.8 Yds per target.

SF has allowed just two rushing TDs to RBs in seven games and ranks first in explosive run prevention. But it also ranks 25th for rushing success prevention and 26th for disruption, while allowing 49 RB catches on 55 targets. That last number is why I'd keep Jeanty usable in full PPR. Javonte and Judkins go ahead of him; White and Dobbins don't. Coleman isn't an automatic upgrade either.

Lineup call: PPR flex. Prefer Javonte or Judkins, but keep Jeanty ahead of White and Dobbins. Coleman is not an automatic upgrade.

Wide receivers

The targets are moving in different directions

Actual weekly targets. A bye stays blank.

Jameson WilliamsDenzel BostonTre Tucker

The targets are moving in different directions

Week	Jameson Williams	Denzel Boston	Tre Tucker
W5	4	7	5
W6		5	7
W7	9	8	12
W8	6	11	1

Zone production is not the same as a soft zone opponent

Player Yds per classified route. Family samples remain separate.

Chart data

Component	Man	Zone
Williams	0.61	1.92
Boston	0.35	1.84
Tucker	1.51	2.57
Wilson	1.63	1.8

Jameson Williams

WR ·DET at MIA

Start · WR2

Jameson has the recent targets to attack MIA's downfield problems.

Key stats

Key stats

Route %	aDOT	MIA 10+ air YPT/rk	MIA PPR/G · rk
93.3%	14.9 Yds	17.69 / #32	25.7 / #3

Williams drew nine targets in Week 7 and six in Week 8, accounting for 29.0% and 24.0% of DET's targets. Add his 34.8% season air Yds share and there's enough work here for a WR2 start. St. Brown is questionable with ribs after limited Wednesday practice. An absence would help Jameson's volume, but I'm starting him with St. Brown in the baseline.

MIA allows a league worst 17.69 YPT on throws of 10+ air Yds. Jameson has 156 Yds on 13 Cover 3 targets, while MIA's most used tagged shell gives up 8.49 YPT on 57 targets, rank 29. Its intermediate outside areas rank 32nd and 31st in prevention. DET is favored by 7.5 in a 49.5 total. The coverage and depth matchup both suit him.

Lineup call: Start over Tucker or Wilson in a close WR2 decision.

Keenan Allen

WR ·IND vs DAL

Start · PPR WR2 / flex

Allen works underneath, right where DAL has been giving up catches.

Key stats

Key stats

Tgt share	TPRR	DAL short M YPT/rk	DAL PPR/G · rk
22.1%	27.6%	8.52 / #31	35.9 / #26

Allen has 50 targets in seven appearances, a 22.1% team share and recent target counts of 11, three and seven. His 36 catches and 72.0% catch rate do more for his PPR value than the 6.5 Yds per target. I'd use him when I need catches from the flex spot.

The short left, middle and right areas account for 36 of his 50 targets. DAL allows 6.84, 8.52 and 7.22 YPT in those spots, ranking 29th, 31st and 31st in prevention. The overall shell grades don't show the opening as clearly as that field map does. IND is getting 5.5 in a 51.5 total, a reasonable setup for Allen's underneath workload.

Lineup call: Use Allen over Flournoy or Tucker when PPR catches matter.

Denzel Boston

WR ·CLE at NO

Start if active · WR3 / flex if active

Five, eight, 11 targets. Boston's role is worth a flex spot if healthy.

Key stats

Key stats

Tgt W6/7/8	Air Yds share	NO zone %	NO PPR/G · rk
5 / 8 / 11	45.3%	74.6%	30.2 / #14

Boston's last three games brought five, eight and 11 targets. He owns 45.3% of CLE's air Yds and has 11 end zone targets. The 49.1% catch rate makes the weekly return messy, but that much downfield and scoring work is worth using in a flex. He is questionable with a calf issue after limited Wednesday practice; the start assumes he is active with his normal role.

NO uses zone on 74.6% of classified coverage. Boston has 328 Yds on 178 zone routes, compared with 24 on 68 man routes. Cover 3 accounts for 50.9% of NO's shell tagged targets and allows 7.65 YPT, rank 21; its Cover 6 is tougher. CLE is getting three in a 42.5 total. Watson also missed Wednesday practice in concussion protocol, so both Boston's health and the QB situation need checking. Allen is the safer healthy option.

Lineup call: WR3 or flex only if active with a normal role. Allen is the safer healthy option.

Ryan Flournoy

WR ·DAL at IND

Deep flex · WR4 / deep flex

IND is a good fit. Flournoy still needs more than four targets.

Key stats

Key stats

Tgt W7/8	TPRR	IND C3 YPT/rk	IND PPR/G · rk
4 / 4	16.7%	8.55 / #30	27.4 / #6

Flournoy has four targets in each of his last two games and a 15.0% season share. Lamb and Pickens are still the first two receivers on DAL's depth chart. Pickens is questionable with a hamstring issue after limited Wednesday work, while Turpin and Ferguson missed practice with ribs and ankle issues. Flournoy would become a more interesting flex if DAL loses pass catchers. For now, those teammates stay in the baseline.

IND allows 8.55 YPT on 75 Cover 3 targets and 6.38 YAC per catch, ranked 30th and 31st in prevention. Flournoy has six catches for 98 Yds on seven Cover 3 targets. That's a small sample, but it gives him a useful way into the matchup. I'd use him in a deeper league, not over someone reliably seeing six to eight targets.

Lineup call: Deep flex. Keep Allen, Boston and Williams ahead of him.

Tre Tucker

WR ·LV at SF

Sit in close calls · WR4

Tucker likes zone. SF's version is a much harder assignment.

Key stats

Key stats

Targets W8	TPRR	SF C3 YPT/rk	SF PPR/G · rk
1	18.8%	6.01 / #6	29.2 / #11

Tucker followed a 12 target game with one target in Week 8. His season share is 17.2%, with Bowers and Mayer both involved. A 51.5 total and LV getting ten suggest passing volume, but the recent target swing makes Tucker harder to trust than Williams or Allen.

He has 344 Yds on 134 classified zone routes. SF uses Cover 3 on 42.3% of shell tagged targets and allows only 6.01 YPT against it, rank six. Tucker has produced against Cover 3 himself, but his intermediate right targets also meet the league's fourth best YPT defense. I still see deeper flex upside; I'd take the better matchup and workload cases ahead of him in a close decision.

Lineup call: Prefer Williams, Allen or Boston. Retain as a deeper upside flex.

Michael Wilson

WR ·ARI at SEA

Sit in close calls · WR3 if active

The targets are real. The ribs, QB change and SEA matchup are real too.

Key stats

Key stats

Tgt W6/7/8	Tgt share	SEA C3 YPT/rk	SEA PPR/G · rk
7 / 8 / 15	25.9%	5.13 / #2	23.8 / #1

Wilson has 30 targets in his last three games and a 25.9% season share. That keeps him ahead of emergency options, but I'd use Williams or Allen if available. Wilson is questionable after reporting two broken ribs and was limited Wednesday for rest and ribs. ARI currently lists Minshew first at QB, so Brissett's season efficiency isn't the passing setup to assume.

SEA allows 5.13 YPT against Cover 3 and 4.75 against Cover 6, ranked second and third in prevention. Together they account for 54.3% of SEA's shell tagged targets. Wilson has drawn 17 targets intermediate right, where SEA allows a league best 4.54 YPT. That's a substantial change from last week's DAL matchup, even with Wilson earning plenty of looks.

Lineup call: Prefer Williams or Allen. Use only if active when better volume options are absent.

Tight ends

TE opportunity meets opponent allowance

Right is more TE PPR allowed; higher is more targets per game.

WarrenLaPortaHenryFergusonFannin

TE opportunity meets opponent allowance

Opponent TE PPR / G	Warren	LaPorta	Henry	Ferguson	Fannin
13.725	7.7
18.9		6.3
9.025			4.3
14.4				3.6
16.7					6.4

Tyler Warren

TE ·IND vs DAL

Start · TE1

Warren gets enough targets to use DAL's soft underneath coverage.

Key stats

Key stats

Targets/G	Tgt share	DAL short M YPT/rk	DAL PPR/G · rk
7.7	23.5%	8.52 / #31	13.7 / #16

Warren returned with ten targets in Week 8 and has 46 across six appearances. His profile shows a 23.5% target share and 25.0% red zone share. The 5.0 Yds per target is poor, but seven or eight opportunities are useful PPR work at TE. He can contribute without needing a TD.

Twenty five of his targets came in the three short areas. DAL allows 6.84 YPT short left, 8.52 middle and 7.22 right, ranked 29th or worse in each. Warren caught 24 of 29 classified zone targets, and DAL uses zone on 65.3% of classified coverage. IND getting 5.5 supports the passing workload too. I'd take that over Henry's foot issue or Ferguson's smaller role.

Lineup call: Start over Henry or Ferguson.

Sam LaPorta

TE ·DET at MIA

Start · TE1

MIA gives LaPorta better options after a difficult MIN matchup.

Key stats

Key stats

Tgt share	RZ tgt share	MIA C3 YPT/rk	MIA PPR/G · rk
18.0%	22.4%	8.49 / #29	18.9 / #30

LaPorta's recent target counts are five, two and five. His 18.0% season share and 22.4% red zone share still keep him in the TE1 group, especially against MIA. St. Brown is questionable with ribs after limited Wednesday practice. LaPorta's start doesn't depend on him missing, although an absence could change the target split.

MIA allows 8.49 YPT against Cover 3 and 8.63 against Cover 6. LaPorta has 11 catches for 114 Yds on 15 Cover 3 targets, plus four catches for 50 on five Cover 6 targets. Intermediate right offers another opening: MIA has allowed 235 Yds on 12 targets there. The shell and target area samples are separate, but both point toward a friendlier receiving matchup.

Lineup call: Start over Henry or Ferguson.

Hunter Henry

TE ·NE vs GB

Sit in close calls · TE2 if active

A foot injury and modest volume make GB a tough spot to chase points.

Key stats

Key stats

Targets/G	Route %	GB C4 YPT/rk	GB PPR/G · rk
4.3	64.0%	4.96 / #4	9.0 / #2

Henry is questionable with a foot injury after failing to finish Week 8 and was absent from the media portion of Wednesday practice. His regular role is 4.3 targets per game, with only one end zone target in the profile sample. An 85.3% catch rate has helped, but there aren't many spare opportunities if the foot limits him.

Cover 4 and Cover 2 make up 45.4% of GB's shell tagged targets. GB allows 4.96 and 5.18 YPT against those shells, fourth and sixth in prevention. Henry has caught all eight of his own Cover 4 targets, so he has handled that look well. I'd still rather start Warren or LaPorta given the health concern and lower volume.

Lineup call: Prefer Warren or LaPorta, even if Henry is active.

Jake Ferguson

TE ·DAL at IND

Sit · TE2 if active

The IND matchup helps, but Ferguson hasn't had the targets to cash in.

Key stats

Key stats

Tgt last 2 G	Route %	Rec EPA/tgt	IND PPR/G · rk
3 / 1	64.9%	-0.271	14.4 / #21

Ferguson is questionable with an ankle injury and missed Wednesday practice. His last two appearances brought three targets and one. Across seven games, his profile has a 9.4% share, 3.6 targets per game and 4.6 Yds per target. That's a thin role to trust while his health is uncertain.

IND allows 8.55 YPT against Cover 3 and 6.38 YAC per catch. Ferguson has just three targets in his own Cover 3 sample, though, so the favorable defensive numbers haven't lined up with much of his workload. He's an option if you're short of bodies and he's active. Warren and LaPorta are comfortably ahead.

Lineup call: Sit for Warren or LaPorta. Henry is not an automatic replacement either.

Harold Fannin Jr.

TE ·CLE at NO

Start · TE1 / replacement

Fannin's target jump meets a short left opening against NO.

Key stats

Key stats

Tgt W7/8	Route %	NO short L YPT/rk	NO PPR/G · rk
9 / 12	83.5%	6.60 / #28	16.7 / #26

Fannin has 21 targets in his last two games, with his team share rising from 25.7% to 30.0%. His season profile has 6.4 targets per game and 83.5% route participation. He also gains 6.7 YAC per catch, with 2.17 Yds above expectation. That's enough involvement and production after the catch to start him over Henry or Ferguson.

Fannin has 11 catches for 131 Yds on 15 short left targets. NO has allowed 297 Yds on 45 targets there, or 6.60 YPT, ranked 28th in prevention. Short middle allows 7.75, although Fannin has only five targets in that area. Boston is questionable with a calf issue and Watson missed Wednesday practice in concussion protocol. Keep those situations in view; Fannin's case already works on his existing role.

Lineup call: Start over Henry or Ferguson. A useful TE replacement alongside Warren and LaPorta.

Kickers

Brandon Aubrey

K ·DAL at IND

Start · K1

Aubrey gets the better offense and a manageable kicking environment.

Key stats

Key stats

Game total	DAL implied pts	IND pressure	Wind mph
51.5	28.5	30.8%	6 to 8

DAL is favored by 5.5 in a 51.5 total, putting its market implied score at 28.5. That is a useful place to start a kicker decision. Aubrey is the listed kicker, and the Lucas Oil forecast has only 6 to 8 mph wind with no rain. The roof is retractable, so those are the outdoor conditions if it is open.

IND allows +0.098 EPA per dropback and pressures only 30.8% of dropbacks. DAL has a workable path to keep moving the ball and give Aubrey scoring opportunities. I would use him ahead of Dicker or Ryland this week.

Lineup call: Start over Dicker or Ryland.

Eddy Pineiro

K ·SF vs LV

Start · K1 / streamer

SF should give Pineiro plenty of chances to get involved.

Key stats

Key stats

Game total	SF implied pts	LV pass EPA/DB	Wind mph
51.5	30.75	+0.163	6 to 7

SF is favored by ten in a 51.5 total, which works out to 30.75 market implied points. Pineiro is the listed kicker, and the forecast is sunny with 6 to 7 mph wind. That is a clean setting for a kicker attached to one of the slate's stronger scoring environments.

LV allows +0.163 EPA per dropback and opponents convert 43.2% of third downs. It has also conceded TDs on 70.6% of red zone drives, so extra points can provide part of the return. I like the offense keeping Pineiro busy, with field goals adding to that base.

Lineup call: Start as a K1 or stream over Dicker and Ryland.

Cameron Dicker

K ·LAC vs HOU

Sit · K2

The indoor conditions are fine. The scoring opportunity is thin.

Key stats

Key stats

Game total	LAC implied pts	HOU pressure	HOU sack rate
40.5	18.0	39.3%	7.66%

LAC is getting 4.5 in a 40.5 total, leaving just 18 market implied points. SoFi is indoors, and Dicker is the listed kicker. The downgrade comes from how little offense the game line is pricing in. I would move to Aubrey or Pineiro if either is available.

HOU pressures 39.3% of dropbacks and gets a sack on 7.66%. Those disruptions can end possessions before Dicker gets a useful kick. A low team total leaves less room for empty drives, while the two starts above have much stronger scoring support. Dicker is a replacement level choice this week.

Lineup call: Sit for Aubrey or Pineiro when available.

Chad Ryland

K ·ARI at SEA

Sit · K2

ARI has a small scoring budget against a disruptive defense.

Key stats

Key stats

Game total	ARI implied pts	SEA pressure	SEA 3D conv allowed
39.5	15.5	43.2%	34.3%

ARI is an 8.5 point underdog in a 39.5 total, which leaves 15.5 market implied points. Ryland is the listed kicker. That is a thin base for a fantasy start, especially if a late deficit pushes ARI toward fourth down attempts rather than short field goals.

SEA pressures 43.2% of dropbacks, allows minus 0.076 EPA per dropback and has held opponents to a 34.3% third down conversion rate. Getting into kicking range is the problem. The current forecast is manageable at 4 to 9 mph wind with a 13% rain chance. I would stream Aubrey or Pineiro first.

Lineup call: Sit. Prefer Aubrey or Pineiro for the stronger scoring setting.

Team defenses

Chicago Bears D/ST

DST ·CHI vs TB

Start · D/ST1 / streamer

Baker gets a pass rush that can actually finish.

Key stats

Key stats

Pressure %	Sack %	Baker EPA/DB	CHI favored by
39.8%	8.33%	-0.230	6

CHI sacks 8.33% of dropbacks, second in the league, and generates pressure on 39.8%. Baker's matchup profile is at minus 0.230 EPA per dropback with a 62.9% catchable rate. That is a useful meeting of a productive pass rush and a struggling passer, rather than a bet on a random defensive TD.

Chicago is favored by six at home in a 47.5 total. Sustained wind is only 8 to 10 mph, despite stronger gusts. Grady Jarrett remains questionable with a groin issue, so the front is not fully cleared. I would stream CHI ahead of DAL or Minnesota's tougher opponent.

Lineup call: Start or stream. Prefer CHI to DAL and MIN in a close D/ST decision.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST

DST ·SEA vs ARI

Start · D/ST1 / streamer

A strong pressure rate meets ARI's replacement quarterback.

Key stats

Key stats

Pressure %	INT %	SEA favored by	Game total
43.2%	3.24%	8.5	39.5

SEA generates pressure on 43.2% of dropbacks and has a 3.24% interception rate. ARI's current depth chart lists Gardner Minshew first. Brissett's season production is not the quarterback baseline to carry into this matchup. Seattle is favored by 8.5 in a 39.5 total, giving the defense a good opportunity to work with a lead.

The weather is mild for Seattle: roughly 4 to 9 mph wind with a 13% rain chance. The more important check is the front, with Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu still listed questionable. Keep that in view before treating the season pressure rate as a fully healthy Sunday lineup.

Lineup call: Start or stream, with Williams and Nwosu's final designations checked before kickoff.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST

DST ·DAL at IND

Sit · Bench / emergency stream

Jones is vulnerable. DAL hasn't been turning that into enough disruption.

Key stats

Key stats

Sack %	INT %	EPA/DB allowed	Game total
5.03%	1.15%	+0.222	51.5

Daniel Jones has minus 0.176 profile EPA per dropback, so the opposing quarterback is a reason to look at DAL. The defense is why I would look elsewhere. Dallas sacks only 5.03% of dropbacks and has a 1.15% interception rate. It also allows plus 0.222 pass EPA per dropback. This unit has not reliably converted a vulnerable passing game into fantasy scoring plays.

The 51.5 total is another concern for points allowed scoring. DAL being favored by 5.5 helps the potential passing script, but it does not fix the weak sack and interception rates. Chicago offers a much better pass rush case.

Lineup call: Sit for CHI or SEA if available; DAL is an emergency matchup stream, not a priority.

Minnesota Vikings D/ST

DST ·MIN vs BUF

Sit in close calls · Matchup downgrade / hold

Keep the defense. Consider a different starter against Allen.

Key stats

Key stats

Pressure %	Sack %	Allen EPA/DB	BUF favored by
45.4%	10.59%	+0.251	3.5

MIN leads the league with a 10.59% sack rate and pressures 45.4% of dropbacks. That pass rush is still worth rostering, even with a tougher opponent this week. Allen still has plus 0.251 profile EPA per dropback and 270 rushing Yds across seven games in assembled research. Pressure has to finish the play before his legs turn it into something else.

BUF is favored by 3.5 in a 45.5 total indoors. There is no wind helping the defense, and Allen gives Buffalo another way to finish scoring drives. If CHI or SEA is available, I would use that matchup this week and keep MIN for later.

Lineup call: Prefer CHI or SEA in a close call. Hold MIN rather than dropping it for a poor streamer.

Fantasy points allowed

Week 9 fantasy points allowed

PPR per game through Week 8. Select a column header to sort. Player sections show allowance ranks.

Week 9 fantasy points allowed

Defense	Opponent	GP	QB	RB	WR	TE
TEN	BYE	8	16.3	22.1	40.7	12.8
NYJ	@KC	8	16.0	21.8	29.0	13.9
SF	LV	7	14.8	23.1	29.2	12.1
LAR	@WAS	8	13.2	20.2	26.3	10.3
CIN	@ATL	7	15.1	19.7	33.1	15.9
WAS	LA	7	18.8	20.6	33.5	20.7
ATL	CIN	8	15.5	27.9	30.1	14.4
TB	@CHI	8	11.2	17.2	27.8	14.8
PHI	NYG	8	16.6	21.2	39.4	9.8
CAR	DEN	7	13.5	28.2	30.5	13.9
CHI	TB	8	15.4	18.1	30.5	12.0
JAX	@BAL	7	13.8	17.3	37.1	11.0
CLE	@NO	8	12.7	21.3	29.5	15.2
NYG	@PHI	7	15.1	20.5	31.3	12.0
LAC	HOU	7	13.5	24.2	30.6	10.5
ARI	@SEA	8	18.6	21.3	32.4	15.6
PIT	BYE	8	11.4	20.4	28.9	13.0
BAL	JAX	8	16.1	19.5	35.2	13.5
IND	DAL	8	16.9	24.8	27.4	14.4
HOU	@LAC	7	17.3	22.7	37.1	10.1
BUF	@MIN	7	18.3	27.2	37.1	14.1
DAL	@IND	8	18.5	26.7	35.9	13.7
KC	NYJ	7	11.8	20.2	24.8	17.8
DEN	@CAR	8	14.2	25.2	27.5	16.9
GB	@NE	8	11.5	25.7	34.7	9.0
MIN	BUF	7	7.6	18.7	25.9	7.1
LV	@SF	8	18.3	25.9	34.0	18.5
MIA	DET	7	18.2	26.8	25.7	18.9
NE	GB	8	14.7	19.0	34.1	12.1
SEA	ARI	8	9.5	22.2	23.8	10.4
NO	CLE	7	15.2	30.8	30.2	16.7
DET	@MIA	7	22.2	18.1	37.0	27.9

How to use these calls

These are PPR calls for close lineup choices. Use the tier beside each name. Kicker and D/ST calls also depend on your league's scoring.

The allowance table covers QB, RB, WR and TE through Week 8. Rank 1 means fewest allowed. Scoring: one per catch, 0.1 per rush or receiving Yd, 0.04 per passing Yd, four per passing TD, six per rush or receiving TD and minus two per INT. Fumbles, two point conversions and bonuses are excluded.

Coverage and target area samples stay separate. Route % uses the player's own passing snaps. Market implied points are spread and total arithmetic, not scoring forecasts. Kicker and D/ST research was checked November 5 morning Pacific.

Explore Route IQ, Rush IQ and Data Lab.

The final lineup board

Download the Statyx lineup board

Player / matchup	Lineup decision
Jared Goff DET at MIA	Start Start over Maye or Caleb in a close single QB decision.
Dak Prescott DAL at IND	Start Start over Maye, Caleb or a speculative streamer.
Baker Mayfield TB at CHI	Sit Sit in single QB: poor passing efficiency meets CHI pressure and a tough short left matchup.
Drake Maye NE vs GB	Sit in close calls Prefer Goff or Prescott. Keep Maye over emergency streamers.
Caleb Williams CHI vs TB	Sit in close calls Prefer Goff or Prescott. Keep Caleb in superflex and ahead of low volume streamers.
Javonte Williams DAL at IND	Start Start over Swift, Dobbins or White.
Quinshon Judkins CLE at NO	Start Start over Dobbins or White. A reasonable RB2 in close calls.
Jonah Coleman DEN at CAR	Start as a flex PPR flex over Dobbins or White; 11 carries and 5 targets in Week 8.
J.K. Dobbins DEN at CAR	Sit Bench for Coleman or Judkins. An emergency flex who needs a TD.
Rachaad White WAS vs LA	Sit Bench for Judkins or Coleman. Retain only as a deep PPR flex.
D'Andre Swift CHI vs TB	Start, lower ceiling Start as an RB2, behind Javonte. Keep ahead of Dobbins and White.
Ashton Jeanty LV at SF	PPR flex Use as a PPR flex. Prefer Javonte or Judkins, but keep Jeanty ahead of White and Dobbins; Coleman is not an automatic upgrade.
Jameson Williams DET at MIA	Start Start over Tucker or Wilson in a close WR2 decision.
Keenan Allen IND vs DAL	Start Use Allen over Flournoy or Tucker when PPR catches matter.
Denzel Boston CLE at NO	Start if active WR3 or flex only if active with a normal role. Allen is the safer healthy option.
Ryan Flournoy DAL at IND	Deep flex Deep flex. Keep Allen, Boston and Williams ahead of him.
Tre Tucker LV at SF	Sit in close calls Prefer Williams, Allen or Boston. Retain as a deeper upside flex.
Michael Wilson ARI at SEA	Sit in close calls Prefer Williams or Allen. Use only if active when better volume options are absent.
Tyler Warren IND vs DAL	Start Start over Henry or Ferguson.
Sam LaPorta DET at MIA	Start Start over Henry or Ferguson.
Hunter Henry NE vs GB	Sit in close calls Prefer Warren or LaPorta, even if Henry is active.
Jake Ferguson DAL at IND	Sit Sit for Warren or LaPorta. Henry is not an automatic replacement either.
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE at NO	Start Start over Henry or Ferguson. A useful TE replacement alongside Warren and LaPorta.
Brandon Aubrey DAL at IND	Start Aubrey gets the better offense and a manageable kicking environment.
Eddy Pineiro SF vs LV	Start SF should give Pineiro plenty of chances to get involved.
Cameron Dicker LAC vs HOU	Sit The indoor conditions are fine. The scoring opportunity is thin.
Chad Ryland ARI at SEA	Sit ARI has a small scoring budget against a disruptive defense.
Chicago Bears D/ST CHI vs TB	Start Baker gets a pass rush that can actually finish.
Seattle Seahawks D/ST SEA vs ARI	Start A strong pressure rate meets ARI's replacement quarterback.
Dallas Cowboys D/ST DAL at IND	Sit Jones is vulnerable. DAL hasn't been turning that into enough disruption.
Minnesota Vikings D/ST MIN vs BUF	Sit in close calls Keep the defense. Consider a different starter against Allen.