NFL Week 10 Fantasy Start / Sit: The Matchups Worth Changing Your Lineup For

A five touchdown game is a tough score to bench. I am still moving one quarterback down this week, because his next opponent defends the throws he relies on much better. The other close calls come down to who is actually getting the carries, who keeps earning targets, and which defensive weaknesses line up with those roles.

By Kaz · November 11, 2026 · Performance through Week 9

Quarterbacks · Running backs · Wide receivers · Tight ends · Kickers · Team defenses · Fantasy points allowed · Final calls

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

QB ·NE at DET

Start | QB1

Maye gets a better setting for the throws that already drive his production.

Drake Maye matchup metrics

Total: 51

Drake Maye matchup metrics

EPA/DB	Rush Yds	DET QB/G
+0.149	218	19.84

I would start Maye over Love, Stroud or Goff this week. Three interceptions against the Packers made his last game look ugly, but he still threw for 299 Yds and three TDs. His past three games have produced 819 passing Yds, seven passing TDs and two rushing TDs. There is a useful second source of points here: 218 rushing Yds across nine games, compared with 23 for Love. That gives Maye some room to recover when a drive or two goes wrong.

The Lions allow +0.1642 EPA per dropback, 27th among 32 defenses, and a 47.18% passing success rate. Short right is Maye's busiest mapped area, with 37 completions on 55 attempts; the Lions have allowed 56 on 73 there. Their intermediate middle has also yielded 15 completions on 17 throws, although that is a small sample. A 51 total and modest Munich winds help the setting. A.J. Brown and Will Campbell remain questionable, so the current receiving and protection picture still matters.

Lineup call: Start over Goff, Love or Stroud. Purdy remains a stronger clear start.

Trevor Lawrence

QB ·JAX at TEN

Start | lower QB1

The Titans fit Lawrence's productive passing areas, even if the Jaguars keep his attempts down.

Trevor Lawrence matchup metrics

Total: 46.5

Trevor Lawrence matchup metrics

EPA/DB	TEN SR	Att W8/9
+0.284	51.48%	14, 26

Lawrence is my preferred start over Love or Stroud in a close decision. He has 1,932 passing Yds on 224 attempts and +0.284 EPA per dropback across 245 full dropbacks. The awkward part is volume: his past two games brought only 14 and 26 attempts. He still turned those 40 throws into 452 Yds and four TDs without an interception. The Titans give that efficiency a good chance to carry over, while the Jaguars' tendency to finish games on the ground keeps the ceiling in check.

The Titans allow a 51.48% passing success rate and +0.1731 EPA per dropback. Intermediate left is a useful overlap: Lawrence has 16 completions on 26 attempts for 297 Yds, while the defense has allowed 12 on 18 for 208. His intermediate middle has also been productive, with 19 completions on 24 throws. Jaguars favoritism of 10.5 points in a 46.5 total supports scoring chances and an eventual rushing script. I am comfortable starting him without assuming 35 or 40 passes.

Lineup call: Start over Love or Stroud. Keep Purdy and Maye ahead of him in a straight choice.

Jared Goff

QB ·DET vs NE

Start | lower QB1

Two quiet games leave Goff needing a rebound, and the Patriots offer one through the middle.

Jared Goff matchup metrics

Total: 51

Jared Goff matchup metrics

EPA/DB	NE SR	Att L2
+0.201	47.83%	25, 25

Goff has been frustrating. He attempted 25 passes in each of his past two games, finishing with 176 Yds and one TD against the Vikings, then 170 Yds and no TDs against the Dolphins. That is a real reason to prefer Maye if you have both. I would still start Goff over Love here. His season has produced 2,134 Yds on 273 attempts and +0.201 EPA per dropback across 298 full dropbacks, and this matchup gives his usual shorter passing game a workable route back to points.

Goff has completed 29 of 33 short middle throws for 226 Yds. The Patriots have allowed 27 of 34 for 248 in the same area. Intermediate middle offers another overlap: Goff has 344 Yds on 29 attempts, while the defense has conceded 158 on 13. Those 13 throws are supporting evidence rather than a dependable weekly allowance. The broader defense permits +0.1457 EPA per dropback. This is a 51 total in Munich, with light winds currently forecast, and a close spread leaves more reason for both offenses to keep throwing.

Lineup call: Start over Love in a close single QB decision. Prefer Maye, Purdy or Lawrence if choosing between them.

Two very different passing maps

Chart data

QB	Zone	Opp EPA/att	QB att	DEF att
J.Goff	short left	0.2307	54	46
J.Goff	short middle	0.3802	33	34
J.Goff	short right	0.1752	50	67
J.Goff	intermediate left	0.335	19	25
J.Goff	intermediate middle	0.5217	29	13
J.Goff	intermediate right	0.8149	19	17
J.Goff	deep left	0.3436	5	10
J.Goff	deep middle	1.2077	3	3
J.Goff	deep right	1.114	5	10
J.Love	short left	-0.0956	45	42
J.Love	short middle	0.1487	47	24
J.Love	short right	-0.0146	63	50
J.Love	intermediate left	-0.132	23	17
J.Love	intermediate middle	-0.1273	22	20
J.Love	intermediate right	0.2104	14	15
J.Love	deep left	0.6501	8	2
J.Love	deep middle	0.3909	9	6
J.Love	deep right	0.1471	16	7

Tyler Shough

QB ·NO vs CAR

Stream | QB2

Shough has the passing volume and just enough rushing involvement to be a useful bye replacement.

Tyler Shough matchup metrics

Total: 48.5

Tyler Shough matchup metrics

Att/G	Rush Yds	CAR sack %
38.5	162	3.92%

Shough is a sensible Caleb Williams bye replacement, particularly if the alternatives are Jones, Rodgers or a speculative new starter. He averages 38.5 attempts across eight games. His two appearances during Weeks 7 to 9 brought 38 and 35 attempts, with 543 passing Yds between them. Last week also added 10 carries for 51 Yds. I would not pencil in another 10 carries, but his 162 season rushing Yds give him a useful advantage over streamers who need every point to arrive through the air.

The Panthers generate pressure on 36.04% of dropbacks but record sacks on only 3.92% of dropbacks. That helps Shough keep possessions alive, and his short left throws have produced 57 completions on 70 attempts. The Saints are favored by two points in a 48.5 total indoors, which is a good setting for continued passing volume. Young belongs in the same streaming tier on the other side and has the better season passing efficiency. I slightly prefer Shough's rushing contribution and stronger catchable rate, rather than treating the choice as a large gap.

Lineup call: Stream over Jones or Rodgers. Young is a comparable alternative; Maye, Purdy and Lawrence remain preferable if available.

Jordan Love

QB ·GB vs MIN

Sit | single QB

Love's recent production is strong. The Vikings are a much harder assignment than the Patriots.

Jordan Love matchup metrics

Total: 42

Jordan Love matchup metrics

Yds W9	MIN EPA/DB	MIN QB/G
372	−0.180	8.20

Love just threw for 372 Yds and three TDs on 29 attempts, then added a rushing TD. Benching that production needs a proper explanation. His past three games contain 934 passing Yds and eight passing TDs on 115 attempts, so I am not arguing that his job or form has disappeared. This is a matchup downgrade in a close single QB decision. I would take Purdy, Maye, Lawrence or Goff ahead of him, while keeping him in a superflex lineup rather than chasing an unproven replacement.

The Vikings allow the league's lowest EPA per dropback at minus 0.1795, create pressure on 45.29% of dropbacks and sack quarterbacks on 10.66%. They have allowed only five passing TDs in eight games. Love's most frequent mapped area, short right, has produced 42 completions on 63 throws; the Vikings allow 31 on 50 there, at just 4.46 Yds per attempt. Easy underneath production is harder to find against this defense. A 42 total also leaves less room for another score exchange like last week's Patriots game.

Lineup call: Prefer Purdy, Maye, Lawrence or Goff in single QB leagues. Keep Love in superflex; this is not a recommendation to bench him for any waiver option.

C.J. Stroud

QB ·HOU at CLE

Sit | single QB

Five TDs against the Chargers make a tempting baseline, but the Browns allow far less room.

C.J. Stroud matchup metrics

Total: 39.5

C.J. Stroud matchup metrics

TD W9	CLE SR	CLE QB/G
5	41.54%	12.92

Stroud's five TDs and 384 Yds last week make this an uncomfortable sit. His season passing has also been good: 2,251 Yds on 282 attempts and +0.187 EPA per dropback across 304 full dropbacks. The question is whether you have a better Week 10 option, not whether that performance was somehow fake. I would start Maye or Lawrence first. Stroud remains a reasonable QB2, but the Browns and a 39.5 game total make another large passing score a much less comfortable bet than the Chargers matchup did.

Short right is Stroud's busiest mapped area, with 47 completions on 60 throws for 428 Yds. The Browns have allowed 40 on 63 for 333, reducing both completion rate and Yds per attempt. Their intermediate middle has conceded only seven completions on 15 attempts, a smaller sample that reinforces the broader picture. The defense allows a 41.54% passing success rate and sacks quarterbacks on 7.72% of dropbacks. The Texans are favored by five points, so it could win this game without asking Stroud to reproduce a ceiling passing performance.

Lineup call: Prefer Maye, Purdy or Lawrence in a close single QB call. Keep Stroud in superflex rather than replacing him with an unsupported rookie.

Good quarterback, difficult assignment

Chart data

QB team	Opp	Player EPA/DB	Full DB	Opp EPA/DB
NE	DET	0.149	318	0.1642
JAX	TEN	0.284	245	0.1731
DET	NE	0.201	298	0.1457
NO	CAR	0.018	341	0.0731
GB	MIN	0.183	360	-0.1795
HOU	CLE	0.187	304	-0.0194

Other quarterbacks decisions

Brock Purdy · Start. A clear start ahead of the featured close calls. Purdy has +0.304 EPA per dropback across 261 full dropbacks, plus 201 rushing Yds. His productive short left passing overlaps the Cowboys' allowance, and the current game total is 56.

Bryce Young · Stream. In the same streaming tier as Shough. Both average 38.5 attempts per game, and Young has the better season passing efficiency. Shough gets a small preference for his greater rushing involvement and stronger catchable rate.

Drew Lock · Conditional. A superflex option if confirmed active with the expected starting role. The Raiders matchup helps, but Lock is managing an oblique injury, Cross and Nelson are doubtful, and the total is only 40.5. His 76 season attempts are a small sample.

Matthew Stafford · QB2. The Cardinals offer a favorable passing matchup, but the Rams are favored by 9.5 in a 39.5 total. His recent three games contain 580 passing Yds and three interceptions, with almost no rushing floor. Puka Nacua's expected absence adds another reason to prefer the featured starts.

Running backs

Chuba Hubbard

RB ·CAR at NO

Start · RB1

The catches make this a better start than the rushing matchup alone suggests.

Chuba Hubbard matchup metrics

Saints RB/G: 28.6 #32

Chuba Hubbard matchup metrics

Carries L3	Tgt L3	RYOE/att
45	18	+0.87

Hubbard's target counts over his last three games were five, eight and five. Even the seven carry game came with passing work. That matters in PPR: he can contribute without the Panthers building a lead or giving him every goal line carry. The rushing quality also holds up, with 0.87 yards above expectation per attempt across 134 qualifying rushes. I would start him over Aaron Jones or Omarion Hampton without needing a touchdown forecast to make the decision.

The Saints have allowed 907 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs in eight games, plus 37 catches for 293 yards. Their 28.6 RB PPR points allowed per game is the league's highest under our scoring. This is indoors, with a 48.5 total and the Panthers only two point underdogs. Damien Lewis' availability still matters to the blocking, but Hubbard's mix of carries and catches is the stronger foundation here.

Lineup call: Start over Jones, Hampton or Allgeier.

Zach Charbonnet

RB ·SEA at LV

Start · RB2

There is enough rushing work now to use the Raiders matchup.

Zach Charbonnet matchup metrics

Yds W9: 77

Zach Charbonnet matchup metrics

Carries W8/9	Raiders RB YPC	Raiders RB/G
6/16	5.21	26.5 #30

Charbonnet went from six carries in Week 8 to 16 for 77 yards in Week 9. That is an actionable change, although two games do not establish an exclusive backfield. Jadarian Price still had nine carries and caught four passes for 54 yards last week. I am buying Charbonnet's rushing role for this matchup, not pretending he has inherited all the passing downs. His 22 season carries are also too few for a qualified rushing efficiency verdict.

The Raiders allow 5.21 yards per running back carry and rank 30th from fewest in RB PPR points allowed. The Seahawks are 6.5 point favorites, which gives the rushing case some support even in a modest 40.5 total. The concern is the offense around him: Drew Lock is expected to start while managing an oblique issue, and Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson are doubtful. Keep the call at RB2 rather than forcing a top tier workload projection.

Lineup call: Start over Jones or Hampton; Hubbard and Javonte remain ahead.

Javonte Williams

RB ·DAL vs SF

Start · RB2

The 49ers lower the efficiency ceiling. They do not erase this workload.

Javonte Williams matchup metrics

Cowboys pts: 26.0

Javonte Williams matchup metrics

Carries L3	Tgt L3	49ers rush EPA
69	7	−0.147

The carry counts are 25, 24 and 20. That is why I would keep Javonte in the lineup against a good run defense. He also drew five targets in the latest game, after zero and two in the previous two. Tyler Goodson's absence helps the workload outlook, but it is not a reason to assign every vacated touch to one player. We already have a substantial rushing role without doing that.

The 49ers allow negative 0.147 EPA per rush and an explosive run rate of only 2.67%. I would expect harder yards than the raw carry total might suggest. The counterweight is the game: a 56 total leaves the Cowboys with 26 market implied points despite being four point underdogs. Javonte can still have enough drives and scoring chances to return RB2 value. I prefer that combination to hoping Jones regains carries or Hampton suddenly adds receiving work.

Lineup call: Start over Jones, Hampton or Allgeier; prefer Hubbard in PPR.

Audric Estimé

RB ·NO vs CAR

Start · RB2 / flex

One Saints game is a small sample, but the role change deserves a lineup response.

Audric Estimé matchup metrics

Saints pts: 25.25

Audric Estimé matchup metrics

Carries W9	Yds W9	Panthers RB/G
15	72	27.4 #31

Estimé carried 15 times for 72 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. Kamara had six carries, his fifth consecutive played game with seven or fewer. Kellen Moore also described using an extra offensive lineman to make the run game more physical. That gives the change some football context beyond the box score. It is still one Saints appearance: Estimé's other nine season carries came with the Browns in Week 6. His 24 carry season is not evidence of two starts in this offense.

The Panthers have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to backs in eight games. On classified runs through left guard, middle and right guard, they have conceded 515 yards and eight touchdowns on 113 attempts. Estimé has taken 18 of his 24 season carries through those lanes. That overlap supports the opportunity, although the defensive sample includes all rushers. With the Saints implied for 25.25 points, I would use him over Jones or Hampton. Kamara's receiving role and Erik McCoy's doubtful status keep this below a safe RB1 call.

Lineup call: Use over Jones or Hampton; more rushing upside than Kamara.

The workload behind the recommendation

Chart data

Player	Week	Carries	Targets
Chuba Hubbard	7	7	5
Chuba Hubbard	8	22	8
Chuba Hubbard	9	16	5
Zach Charbonnet	7	Unavailable	Unavailable
Zach Charbonnet	8	6	4
Zach Charbonnet	9	16	2
Javonte Williams	7	25	0
Javonte Williams	8	24	2
Javonte Williams	9	20	5
Aaron Jones	7	8	1
Aaron Jones	8	5	2
Aaron Jones	9	5	1

Aaron Jones

RB ·MIN at GB

Sit · role concern

The Packers are a good matchup. Five carries is the bigger problem.

Aaron Jones matchup metrics

Vikings pts: 19.25

Aaron Jones matchup metrics

Carries L3	Tgt L3	Packers RB/G
8/5/5	1/2/1	26.0 #27

Jones has 18 carries and four targets across his last three games. The latest two appearances brought seven and six actual touches. That is too little to promote just because the opponent is familiar or allows plenty of fantasy points to backs. Jordan Mason is first on the current depth chart, and Jones' passing involvement has not compensated for the reduced rushing work.

The Packers' 26.0 RB PPR points allowed per game is a legitimate argument in his favor. I would rather acknowledge it than manufacture a difficult matchup. But the Vikings are implied for 19.25 points, and there is no verified workload recovery to pair with that favorable defense. I would start Hubbard, Javonte, Charbonnet or Estimé instead. Jones remains a deeper option if the available replacement has an equally uncertain role; this is a close call bench, not an instruction to drop him.

Lineup call: Prefer Hubbard, Javonte, Charbonnet or Estimé.

Omarion Hampton

RB ·LAC at BAL

Sit · low floor

More carries would help. This matchup makes a rushing only role harder to use.

Omarion Hampton matchup metrics

Chargers pts: 17.0

Omarion Hampton matchup metrics

Carries L3	Tgt L3	RYOE/att
7/9/13	4/3/0	−0.49

Hampton's last three played games had seven, nine and 13 carries. There was a bye between the first and second, so those are Weeks 6, 8 and 9. The latest carry increase came with no targets. That leaves him needing rushing efficiency or a touchdown, and the season profile has been weak: negative 0.49 yards above expectation per carry and negative 0.292 rushing EPA per attempt.

The Ravens have held running backs to 3.58 yards per carry. Through the interior lanes, Hampton has 217 yards on 62 classified carries, while the Ravens have allowed 374 on 113. That is a difficult place to rely on a sudden efficiency jump. The Chargers are implied for just 17 points. Justin Herbert's injury needs monitoring, but the coach expects him to play after imaging found no fracture, so I am not building the sit around an assumed backup quarterback. I would take Estimé's opportunity instead.

Lineup call: Prefer Estimé, Charbonnet, Javonte or Hubbard.

Tyler Allgeier

RB ·ARI vs LA

Sit · deeper flex

The carries are increasing, but the scoring setting is poor.

Tyler Allgeier matchup metrics

Cardinals pts: 15.0

Tyler Allgeier matchup metrics

Carries L3	Yds W9	Rams RB/G
8/11/17	46	19.5 #6

Allgeier's workload is growing. He had eight, 11 and 17 carries over his last three games, so a sit based on losing touches would be wrong. The latest 17 produced 46 yards, with two catches adding no receiving yardage. His positive 0.95 season RYOE per carry also deserves credit. The reason to look elsewhere is what those carries are being asked to overcome this week.

The Rams allow negative 0.0983 EPA per rush and a 38.14% rushing success rate. They have conceded the sixth fewest RB PPR points per game under our scoring. The Cardinals are implied for only 15 points and are moving to Carson Beck after Gardner Minshew went on injured reserve. More volume could keep Allgeier usable in a deep league, but it does not make this a comfortable RB2. I would start any of the four featured starts ahead of him and keep the new quarterback's uncertainty separate from Minshew's old numbers.

Lineup call: Prefer the four featured RB starts; volume only in deeper lineups.

Other running backs decisions

Jaylen Warren · Start · strong RB2. His last three played games brought 14, 18 and 17 carries plus ten targets. Positive 0.128 rushing EPA per attempt supports the workload. Keep him ahead of the fringe starts.

Breece Hall · Start · RB2. Back from five missed games, Hall had 15 carries and four targets to Braelon Allen's eight carries and two targets. The Bills allow only 3.76 yards per RB carry, so his receiving work matters as an 8.5 point underdog.

Chase Brown · PPR RB2 / flex. Seventeen targets across the last three games and 39 catches on 45 season targets keep him useful. The Steelers matchup lowers the ceiling, but he is not the same rushing only bench as Hampton.

Ollie Gordon II / Bhayshul Tuten · Volume flexes. Gordon's offense is changing to Kyle McCord. Tuten benefits from the Jaguars being 10.5 point favorites. Neither needs to be forced above the stronger starts.

Corey Kiner · Conditional flex. Stevenson is doubtful and Henderson questionable. Kiner's eight carries with no targets do not establish a complete role. Even if both miss, the Lions allow the second fewest RB PPR points per game.

Kaleb Johnson · Conditional volume flex. Jacobs needs finger surgery. Johnson had 14 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown, but Pierre Strong had eight carries and Chris Brooks could return. The Vikings allow the fifth fewest RB PPR points per game.

Cam Skattebo · Check final status. The official Giants report has full Tuesday participation and no final designation yet. Do not treat a stale out label as confirmation that he will miss the game.

Blake Corum / Rachaad White / Alvin Kamara · Deeper options. Corum has 17, 11 and 11 recent carries but shares with Kyren Williams. White and Kamara retain receiving value. None gets an automatic full workload promotion from teammate news alone.

Wide receivers

Tetairoa McMillan

WR ·CAR at NO

Start · WR2

The Saints look ordinary in fantasy points allowed. The downfield fit is better than that.

Tetairoa McMillan matchup metrics

Opp WR/G: 31.7 #17

Tetairoa McMillan matchup metrics

Tgt L3	Team tgt	Deep YPT
23	25.1%	12.59

I would keep McMillan in the lineup after a quiet stretch. He still has 23 targets across his last three games and a 25.1% season target share. Last week's six targets followed 11 against the Packers. The Saints' 31.7 WR PPR points allowed per game looks fairly ordinary, but their downfield defense has conceded 982 Yds on 78 targets, or 12.59 per target. His opportunities have a better chance of turning into useful gains here.

McMillan has 436 Yds on 193 classified zone routes, compared with 89 on 61 man routes. The Saints use zone on 74.0% of classified looks, and their most common shell among tagged targets is Cover 3. He has 203 Yds on 23 targets against that shell. The Saints defend the intermediate middle much better, so I would lean on his established workload and the outside opportunities rather than expect every area to open up. He stays ahead of Addison or Tucker for me.

Lineup call: Start over Jordan Addison or Tre Tucker.

Jameson Williams

WR ·DET vs NE

Start · WR2/3

Two targets last week hurt. The role and the Patriots' deep coverage still make him worth starting.

Jameson Williams matchup metrics

Opp WR/G: 38.7 #31

Jameson Williams matchup metrics

Route %	Air Yds %	Deep YPT
91.6%	34.2%	13.48

Two targets against the Dolphins makes this an uncomfortable start, which is exactly why I would revisit the matchup. Williams saw nine and six targets in the two games before that, and his season route participation is 91.6% of team passing snaps. The Patriots allow 38.7 WR PPR points per game. More relevant to his job, their downfield allowance is 13.48 Yds per target, ranked 30th from fewest. His 15.3 Yd average target depth puts him in those areas.

The Patriots have allowed 222 Yds on 14 deep left targets and 221 on 11 deep right targets. Williams has three catches on five targets to each side, producing 74 and 112 Yds. The Patriots' 44.1% man usage complicates the fit because his classified man sample is tiny and unproductive. Still, the 51 game total and those outside openings make him my preferred ceiling play over Tucker or Addison in Munich.

Lineup call: Start over Tre Tucker or Jordan Addison when chasing a flex ceiling.

Jakobi Meyers

WR ·JAX at TEN

Start · PPR flex

The intermediate catches give Meyers a useful path without needing a huge passing day.

Jakobi Meyers matchup metrics

Opp WR/G: 40.7 #32

Jakobi Meyers matchup metrics

Tgt L2	Team tgt	Fit YPT
9	16.7%	10.07

Meyers is a useful PPR flex when the alternative needs one long catch to save the afternoon. He caught six of nine targets for 89 Yds in Weeks 8 and 9. That is two games, with the Jaguars' bye in Week 7. His season route participation is 83.5% of team passing snaps, and the Titans allow 40.7 WR PPR points per game, the most in the league. This is a modest role getting a genuinely useful matchup.

The intermediate middle has produced nine catches and 146 Yds on 10 targets for Meyers. Add the two outside intermediate areas and those locations account for 20 of his 37 season targets. The Titans have allowed 583 Yds on 51 targets across those three areas. The Jaguars being favored by 10.5 means I would temper the passing volume expectation. I would still take Meyers' catches over Tucker's difficult deep matchup or Addison's shrinking target totals.

Lineup call: Start over Tre Tucker or Jordan Addison in full PPR.

A matchup has more than one rank

Chart data

Receiver	Metric	Rank / 32	Value	Unit
Tetairoa McMillan	targetArea	29	9.82	weighted yards/target allowed
Tetairoa McMillan	explosivePrevention	27	16.4	explosive reception rate allowed
Tetairoa McMillan	yacContainment	24	5.61	YAC/reception allowed
Tetairoa McMillan	downfield	27	12.59	yards/target allowed, 10+ yd throws
Jameson Williams	targetArea	31	10.99	weighted yards/target allowed
Jameson Williams	explosivePrevention	28	16.6	explosive reception rate allowed
Jameson Williams	yacContainment	17	5.17	YAC/reception allowed
Jameson Williams	downfield	30	13.48	yards/target allowed, 10+ yd throws
Meyers	targetArea	30	10.07	weighted yards/target allowed
Meyers	explosivePrevention	25	15.5	explosive reception rate allowed
Meyers	yacContainment	15	5.08	YAC/reception allowed
Meyers	downfield	23	11.48	yards/target allowed, 10+ yd throws
Tre Tucker	targetArea	1	6.95	weighted yards/target allowed
Tre Tucker	explosivePrevention	1	7.9	explosive reception rate allowed
Tre Tucker	yacContainment	3	4.42	YAC/reception allowed
Tre Tucker	downfield	1	7.96	yards/target allowed, 10+ yd throws

Tre Tucker

WR ·LV vs SEA

Sit · WR4

The Seahawks play plenty of zone. Their version has been a poor place to chase big receiving plays.

Tre Tucker matchup metrics

Opp WR/G: 23.2 #1

Tre Tucker matchup metrics

Tgt L3	aDOT	Deep YPT
21	13.8 Yds	7.96

Tucker's 21 targets over the last three games can make the workload look steadier than it has been. They arrived as 12, one and eight, producing nine catches for 158 Yds. His 13.8 Yd average target depth makes downfield conversion important, and the Seahawks allow the fewest WR PPR points per game. Their all receiver downfield allowance is 7.96 Yds per target, also the lowest in the league. This is a difficult week to trust his ceiling.

The tempting counterargument is zone coverage. Tucker has 399 Yds on 151 classified zone routes, and the Seahawks use zone on 76.0% of classified looks. The individual shells explain why I would still sit him. Their Cover 3 allows 5.38 Yds per target on 86 targets, while Cover 6 allows 4.53 on 68. Those defenses have limited the exact passing opportunities he usually needs. I would move Meyers, McMillan and Jameson ahead of him.

Lineup call: Sit for Jakobi Meyers, Tetairoa McMillan or Jameson Williams.

Jordan Addison

WR ·MIN at GB

Sit · WR4

A generous fantasy allowance hides how well the Packers have limited downfield efficiency.

Jordan Addison matchup metrics

Opp WR/G: 35.7 #27

Jordan Addison matchup metrics

Tgt L3	aDOT	Deep YPT
14	14.9 Yds	9.22

The Packers allow 35.7 WR PPR points per game, which looks like a reason to start Addison. I would look past that number here. He has seven catches for 114 Yds on 14 targets over the last three games, with only three targets in two of them. His route participation remains 96.9% of team passing snaps. He is still running the routes, but that has not translated into enough opportunities to make the weekly decision comfortable.

His 14.9 Yd average target depth also runs into a defense ranked fourth in downfield prevention at 9.22 Yds per target. The Packers rank fifth in preventing explosive receptions. Their Cover 4 and Cover 2 account for 45.7% of shell tagged targets and allow 5.31 and 5.84 Yds per target. A favorable volume driven fantasy allowance does not make those throws easy. I would rather start Meyers for catches or Williams for a more inviting deep matchup.

Lineup call: Sit for Jakobi Meyers or Jameson Williams; McMillan also stays ahead.

Other wide receivers decisions

DeMario Douglas · Conditional PPR flex. Nine targets and 102 Yds last week put Douglas in the flex conversation if A.J. Brown remains out. He had four and three targets in the games before that. His slot role helps identify the opportunity, but the Lions' strong YAC defense keeps this a volume based preference over Addison or Tucker rather than an automatic start.

Caleb Douglas · Deep flex watch. Caleb's targets have climbed from three to six to eight, with six catches for 70 Yds last week. The Colts allow plenty of explosive receptions and YAC. His first game with Kyle McCord adds uncertainty after Malik Willis went on IR, so I would keep the established main starts ahead of him.

Tutu Atwell and Konata Mumpfield · Vacancy watch. Nacua's expected absence creates an opportunity, but the new target distribution has not been demonstrated. Atwell had four and five targets in his last two games; Mumpfield had two in each of his last three. Their Week 9 route counts were 25 and 26, with participation percentages unavailable. Neither becomes an automatic start simply by subtracting Nacua from the lineup.

Tight ends

Tyler Warren

TE ·IND vs MIA

Start · TE1

Warren already had a receiving role before the Colts traded Allen and Downs.

Tyler Warren matchup metrics

Route %: 84.5%

Tyler Warren matchup metrics

Tgt L2	Team tgt	Opp TE/G
17	23.2%	17.4 #28

Warren is the Colts receiving option I would trust first after the deadline. He had 10 targets in Week 8 and seven in Week 9, before Keenan Allen and Josh Downs were traded. That is 17 over two games, not three. His season target share is 23.2%, with routes on 84.5% of team passing snaps. There is already a substantial job here. He does not need us to guess how the departing receivers' targets will be redistributed.

The Dolphins allow 17.4 TE PPR points per game and have conceded 52 catches on 62 targets to the position. Warren has caught 28 of 35 classified zone targets, while the Dolphins use zone on 77.0% of classified looks. His 4.6 Yd average target depth and 5.19 Yds per target make catches the strongest part of the case. The 38 game total limits my touchdown enthusiasm, but I would still start him comfortably over Kraft or Pitts in PPR.

Lineup call: Start over Tucker Kraft or Kyle Pitts, especially in PPR.

Darren Waller

TE ·CAR at NO

Start · TE1/stream

The 10 targets were new. The route count was not, which matters when judging last week's breakout.

Darren Waller matchup metrics

Rts/pass: 29/43

Darren Waller matchup metrics

Tgt W9	Tgt prior 2	Opp TE/G
10	2, 2	16.1 #26

Waller gives me a more interesting streaming decision than simply chasing last week's touchdown. He caught eight of 10 targets for 90 Yds against the Broncos, but had two targets in each of his previous two games. His route participation barely changed: 29 of 43 team passing snaps last week, versus 31 of 47 the game before. The breakthrough came from a bigger share of the throws, rather than suddenly becoming a full time route runner.

The Saints offer a reasonable place to keep using him. They allow 16.1 TE PPR points per game, and their short outside areas allow 6.53 Yds per target to the left and 6.90 to the right. Waller has 17 season targets across those two locations. He also lines up in the slot on 55.6% of his charted snaps, with another 24.1% out wide. I would use him over Kraft or Pitts while keeping a much more modest target expectation than last week's 10.

Lineup call: Start or stream over Tucker Kraft or Kyle Pitts.

Waller's targets changed more than his role

Chart data

Week	Routes	Targets	TPRR	Route participation
8	31	2	6.5%	66.0%
9	29	10	34.5%	67.4%

Hunter Henry

TE ·NE at DET

Stream if healthy

The matchup is worth the stream, provided the foot injury allows his usual role.

Hunter Henry matchup metrics

Route %: 61.5%

Hunter Henry matchup metrics

Tgt L3	Catch %	Opp TE/G
13	86.5%	25.1 #32

Henry is a matchup stream if his foot is ready for his usual workload. His last three target counts are seven, three and three, and his season route participation is 61.5% of team passing snaps. The attraction is the quality of those looks and the opponent: he has caught 32 of 37 targets, while the Lions allow 25.1 TE PPR points per game. Their 11 receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends explain a large part of that league high total.

There is a usable short right overlap, where Henry has eight catches on nine targets for 82 Yds. The Lions allow 5.99 Yds per target there across 70 targets. Their overall YAC defense is excellent, so I would expect useful catches rather than assume he will run through the secondary. The 51 total helps the scoring opportunity. Last week's questionable designation is not a new Week 10 clearance, though. If his practice work stays limited, Waller is my preference.

Lineup call: Stream over Kraft or Pitts if his usual role is confirmed; prefer Waller if the foot remains limiting.

Tucker Kraft

TE ·GB vs MIN

Sit · TE2

The Vikings defend Kraft's short targets well, and the Packers' receivers are getting most of the attention.

Tucker Kraft matchup metrics

Team tgt: 15.8%

Tucker Kraft matchup metrics

Tgt L3	Opp TE/G	Short YPT
15	9.3 #1	5.13

Kraft has 15 targets across the last three games, compared with 35 for Golden and 26 for Watson. His 71.5% route participation keeps him involved, but it has not made him the priority when the Packers throw. The Vikings allow just 9.3 TE PPR points per game, the fewest in the league. They have given up one receiving touchdown to the position across eight games. This is a difficult setting for a player already behind two busy receivers.

The short field is the clearest problem. Kraft has 27 targets for 146 Yds across short left, middle and right. The Vikings allow 4.75, 5.13 and 4.85 Yds per target in those areas, with defensive samples of 40, 24 and 46 targets. Jacobs' absence could push the Packers toward more passing, but those extra throws still have competition. I would take Warren's established catches or Waller's more inviting matchup over Kraft in a close decision.

Lineup call: Sit for Tyler Warren or Darren Waller; a healthy Henry is another stream.

Kyle Pitts

TE ·ATL vs KC

Sit · TE2

Five targets each week sounds useful. Their depth and the specific matchup leave less room for production.

Kyle Pitts matchup metrics

Opp TE/G: 17.0 #27

Kyle Pitts matchup metrics

Tgt L3	aDOT	Fit YPT
15	4.8 Yds	6.06

Pitts has five targets in each of his last three games, so this is not a disappearing role. The problem is how little those opportunities are producing. His season average target depth is 4.8 Yds, with 5.9 Yds per target. The Chiefs allow 17.0 TE PPR points per game, which gives Pitts a reasonable counterargument. Their defense looks less inviting when the allowance is weighted to his actual target areas: 6.06 Yds per target, ranked eighth from fewest.

Short right is the main overlap. Pitts has 72 Yds on 12 targets there, while the Chiefs allow 5.61 Yds per target across 56 targets, ranked fifth. His classified zone work has produced 120 Yds on 138 routes. There is more production in his smaller man sample, and the Chiefs do play man on 42.6% of classified looks. I would still prefer Warren's catches or Waller's matchup rather than need Pitts to turn a short target into the deciding touchdown.

Lineup call: Sit for Tyler Warren or Darren Waller in a close one TE decision.

Other tight ends decisions

AJ Barner · Deeper stream. Barner has 14 targets in his last three games and routes on 79.2% of team passing snaps this season. The Raiders allow 17.5 TE PPR points per game. He is a reasonable Henry alternative if the waiver options are thin, but last week's two touchdowns came with only 10 scrimmage Yds. Waller remains my first streaming choice.

Dalton Schultz · Usable TE2. Schultz remains usable if the preferred streams are unavailable. He had six and four targets in his last two games, with a bye between them. The Browns defend his short outside targets well but allow more underneath through the middle. I prefer Warren or Waller without turning that into a universal bench call.

Kickers

Kickers decisions

Kickers decisions

Player / team	Call
Jake Bates	Start
Tyler Bass	Start
Spencer Shrader	Start
Will Reichard	Keep starting
Cam Little	Start
Charlie Smyth	Deeper stream
Cameron Dicker	Downgrade

Matchup context

• Jake Bates: Lions implied 26.75 points; Munich wind 2 to 3 mph
• Tyler Bass: 19 of 19 FGs; 13 attempts in his last four games
• Spencer Shrader: 22 of 24 FGs across nine games
• Will Reichard: 20 of 22 FGs across eight games
• Cam Little: 14 of 16 FGs; Jaguars implied 28.5 points
• Charlie Smyth: Three of four FGs in his only 2026 game; indoors
• Cameron Dicker: Chargers implied 17 points

Bates and Bass are the first two I would check if I needed a kicker. Bates gets a Lions offense implied for 26.75 points in Munich, where the forecast currently has only 2 to 3 mph wind. Bass has made all 19 field goals this season, with 13 attempts across his last four played games. The Bills are implied for 29.75 points. Wind of 12 to 13 mph at MetLife is worth following, but the current forecast does not erase that opportunity.

Shrader and Reichard have earned more trust than a team total alone can explain. Shrader has 24 attempts in nine games and made three last week. Reichard has 22 attempts in eight games and converted 20. I would keep either over chasing Smyth purely because the Saints carry a higher scoring expectation.

Little has a good setting against the Titans, although his four field goals last week followed a game with no attempts. Smyth is a deeper stream after getting four attempts in his only appearance this season. The indoor matchup helps; one game does not establish his usual workload. Dicker is the close call downgrade here because the Chargers are implied for only 17 points. I would use the established options above when available.

Team defenses

Team defenses decisions

Team defenses decisions

Player / team	Call
Texans	Strong start
Jaguars	Strong start
Rams	Strong start
Seahawks	Strong start
Ravens	Priority stream
Colts	Stream
Bills	Start
Steelers	Sit; hold
Cowboys	Sit

Matchup context

• Texans: 9.27% sack rate; Browns implied 17.25 points
• Jaguars: 39.59% pressure rate; Titans implied 18 points
• Rams: Cardinals implied 15 points; Beck now first at QB
• Seahawks: 41.25% pressure rate; Mendoza making first start
• Ravens: Chargers implied 17 points; poor passing efficiency
• Colts: McCord replaces Willis; Dolphins implied 17.0 points
• Bills: 38.79% pressure rate; Jets implied 21.25 points
• Steelers: Bengals implied 26 points despite 8.18% sack rate
• Cowboys: 49ers implied 30 points; 5.06% sack rate

The Texans and Jaguars combine useful defensive performance with favorable opponents. The Texans have a 9.27% sack rate and produced eight sacks last week. The Browns are implied for 17.25 points. The Browns have now confirmed Deshaun Watson as their Week 10 starter. The Jaguars pressure 39.59% of dropbacks and face a Titans offense implied for 18 points. Their pass defense has allowed negative 0.1007 EPA per dropback before the new defensive additions.

The Rams and Seahawks get rookie quarterbacks, but the player identities matter. Minshew is on injured reserve and Beck is now first on the Cardinals depth chart. The Raiders have confirmed Mendoza as their starter after trading Cousins. I would not borrow either veteran's statistics to describe the replacement. The Cardinals are implied for 15 points and the Raiders for 17. The Seahawks also bring a 41.25% pressure rate, although their questionable defensive linemen need a later check.

The Ravens are my priority matchup stream. Herbert's assembled Statyx sample has negative 0.250 EPA per dropback and a 34.2% passing success rate. His coach expects him to play after imaging ruled out a fracture, so this case does not assume a backup quarterback. The Colts are a step down in defensive quality, with only a 0.76% interception rate, but McCord taking over after Willis went on injured reserve makes them usable.

The Bills are a reasonable fallback. Geno has positive 0.081 EPA per dropback, and the Jets are implied for 21.25 points, so this is a less forgiving matchup than the lowest scoring opponents above. I would still prefer them to the Cowboys. The Steelers are a weekly bench rather than a drop: their 8.18% sack rate remains valuable, but the Bengals are implied for 26 points. The Cowboys face the 49ers at 30 implied points without a strong disruption rate to offset it.

Pressure and opponent scoring context

Chart data

Defense	Opp	Pressure rate	Opp implied points
Texans	CLE	39.87%	17.25
Jaguars	TEN	39.59%	18.0
Rams	ARI	35.78%	15.0
Seahawks	LV	41.25%	17.0
Ravens	LAC	35.17%	17.0
Steelers	CIN	34.28%	26.0
Cowboys	SF	35.71%	30.0

Fantasy points allowed

Fantasy points allowed

PPR points per game through Week 9. Select a column header to sort. Rank 1 means fewest allowed; sort values retain full precision.

Fantasy points allowed

Defense	QB PPR/G	QB rank	RB PPR/G	RB rank	WR PPR/G	WR rank	TE PPR/G	TE rank
49ers	14.5	14	21.1	16	27.4	6	14.5	20
Bears	14.3	13	20.4	11	29.4	10	11.4	10
Bengals	14.2	12	20.9	15	31.1	15	15.5	24
Bills	16.2	22	25.1	24	34.3	23	13.2	15
Broncos	15.0	15	24.0	22	27.6	7	19.4	31
Browns	12.9	8	21.5	18	30.0	13	15.0	23
Buccaneers	11.2	4	15.9	1	30.0	14	14.7	22
Cardinals	17.8	29	21.3	17	31.3	16	15.6	25
Chargers	16.0	18	22.8	21	36.9	29	10.0	3
Chiefs	11.1	3	20.1	10	23.5	2	17.0	27
Colts	17.4	27	25.3	25	29.5	11	14.4	19
Commanders	17.8	30	20.7	14	34.9	25	19.0	30
Cowboys	17.5	28	26.3	28	35.0	26	13.1	14
Dolphins	16.5	24	25.6	26	25.8	4	17.4	28
Eagles	16.1	20	19.7	8	37.7	30	10.5	6
Falcons	17.0	26	26.4	29	33.6	19	13.3	16
Giants	14.2	11	19.7	7	29.9	12	11.8	11
Jaguars	11.9	6	18.1	3	33.7	20	10.3	5
Jets	16.2	21	24.7	23	28.5	8	14.6	21
Lions	19.8	32	17.7	2	34.7	24	25.1	32
Packers	12.4	7	26.0	27	35.7	27	9.7	2
Panthers	13.8	10	27.4	31	31.9	18	13.5	17
Patriots	16.0	19	18.9	4	38.7	31	11.0	8
Raiders	18.0	31	26.5	30	33.8	21	17.5	29
Rams	13.4	9	19.5	6	27.2	5	10.6	7
Ravens	15.8	17	19.9	9	34.2	22	13.8	18
Saints	15.8	16	28.6	32	31.7	17	16.1	26
Seahawks	9.2	2	20.5	13	23.2	1	11.1	9
Steelers	11.4	5	20.4	12	28.9	9	13.0	13
Texans	16.9	25	22.4	20	36.4	28	10.1	4
Titans	16.3	23	22.1	19	40.7	32	12.8	12
Vikings	8.2	1	19.2	5	25.2	3	9.3	1

Scoring and samples

PPR: 0.04 per passing Yd, four per passing TD, minus two per interception, 0.1 per rushing or receiving Yd, six per rushing or receiving TD and one per catch. Unavailable fumbles, two point conversions and bonuses are excluded. Allowance ranks use unrounded per game values.

Performance is through Week 9. Full dropback EPA, pass attempt EPA, classified coverage samples and overall route samples retain their own denominators. Targets are opportunities, not catches. Market implied points are arithmetic from the stated total and spread, not a scoring projection. Availability and forecasts retain the research snapshot; final game statuses may change.

Explore Route IQ, Coverage Engine, Rush IQ and Data Lab. Read the Week 10 Man vs Zone article for the coverage detail.

Final lineup calls

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks final calls

Quarterbacks final calls

Player	Call
Drake Maye	Start | QB1
Trevor Lawrence	Start | QB1/2
Jared Goff	Start | QB1/2
Tyler Shough	Stream | QB2
Jordan Love	Sit | single QB
C.J. Stroud	Sit | single QB
Brock Purdy	Start
Bryce Young	Stream
Drew Lock	Conditional
Matthew Stafford	QB2

Matchups

Drake Maye: NE at DET · Trevor Lawrence: JAX at TEN · Jared Goff: DET vs NE · Tyler Shough: NO vs CAR · Jordan Love: GB vs MIN · C.J. Stroud: HOU at CLE · Brock Purdy: SF at DAL · Bryce Young: CAR at NO · Drew Lock: SEA at LV · Matthew Stafford: LA at ARI

Running backs

Running backs final calls

Running backs final calls

Player	Call
Chuba Hubbard	Start · RB1
Zach Charbonnet	Start · RB2
Javonte Williams	Start · RB2
Audric Estimé	Start · RB2 / flex
Aaron Jones	Sit · role concern
Omarion Hampton	Sit · low floor
Tyler Allgeier	Sit · deeper flex
Jaylen Warren	Start · RB2
Breece Hall	Start · RB2
Chase Brown	PPR RB2 / flex
Ollie Gordon II	Volume flex
Bhayshul Tuten	Volume flex
Corey Kiner	Conditional flex
Kaleb Johnson	Conditional flex
Cam Skattebo	Check status
Blake Corum	Deeper option
Rachaad White	Deeper option
Alvin Kamara	Deeper option

Matchups

Chuba Hubbard: CAR at NO · Zach Charbonnet: SEA at LV · Javonte Williams: DAL vs SF · Audric Estimé: NO vs CAR · Aaron Jones: MIN at GB · Omarion Hampton: LAC at BAL · Tyler Allgeier: ARI vs LA

Wide receivers

Wide receivers final calls

Wide receivers final calls

Player	Call
Tetairoa McMillan	Start · WR2
Jameson Williams	Start · WR2/3
Jakobi Meyers	Start · PPR flex
Tre Tucker	Sit · WR4
Jordan Addison	Sit · WR4
DeMario Douglas	Conditional flex
Caleb Douglas	Deep flex watch
Tutu Atwell	Vacancy watch
Konata Mumpfield	Vacancy watch

Matchups

Tetairoa McMillan: CAR at NO · Jameson Williams: DET vs NE · Jakobi Meyers: JAX at TEN · Tre Tucker: LV vs SEA · Jordan Addison: MIN at GB · DeMario Douglas: NE at DET · Caleb Douglas: MIA at IND · Tutu Atwell: LA at ARI · Konata Mumpfield: LA at ARI

Tight ends

Tight ends final calls

Tight ends final calls

Player	Call
Tyler Warren	Start · TE1
Darren Waller	Start · TE1/stream
Hunter Henry	Stream if healthy
Tucker Kraft	Sit · TE2
Kyle Pitts	Sit · TE2
AJ Barner	Deeper stream
Dalton Schultz	Usable TE2

Matchups

Tyler Warren: IND vs MIA · Darren Waller: CAR at NO · Hunter Henry: NE at DET · Tucker Kraft: GB vs MIN · Kyle Pitts: ATL vs KC · AJ Barner: SEA at LV · Dalton Schultz: HOU at CLE