Weekly board

Prop Impact

About this tool

Prop Impact: NFL Receiving Props Priced by Coaching DNA

Prop Impact prices the NFL targets, receptions and receiving yards lines captured for the week against the Coaching DNA projection for each player, with the sportsbook margin removed, and ranks the lines by expected value.

More about Prop Impact

What it measures

  • The projection's chance of the over next to the book's chance with its margin removed
  • The edge in percentage points and the expected value per dollar on the better side, or pass when neither side is positive
  • Projected targets and the projected role, such as WR1 or TE room, for every player
  • A minimum EV filter: show all, break even or better, 2% or 5%

Data and updates

Built on the weekly Coaching DNA projection, run on Tuesday and again on Friday, and on sportsbook player prop lines captured every two hours and priced as soon as they land. Lines more than 36 hours old are left out.

How to read it

  1. Model is the projection's chance of the over; Book is the sportsbook's chance of the over with its margin removed. Edge is Model minus Book, in percentage points.
  2. Rows are ranked by EV, the expected profit per dollar at the posted price on the better side. Pass means neither side shows a positive expected value.

Related

Prop Impact FAQ

What does Prop Impact show?

The NFL targets, receptions and receiving yards lines captured for the week, each priced against the Coaching DNA projection for that player and ranked by expected value.

Which lines does it price?

Two way over and under lines for targets, receptions and receiving yards, from each book separately. Milestone and one sided lines are left out, because there is no price on the other side to remove the margin from.

Why is the board empty?

Lines appear once sportsbooks post NFL player props for the week. Before that, and outside the season, the board says no lines have been captured yet and fills in on its own as they land.

Is Prop Impact a list of picks?

No. It compares the projection with the market. Edge and EV are research context, not recommendations.

Is Prop Impact free?

Yes. It opens with no account and no plan.